Society and Economy in a "Cloud"

Recently, a Microsoft executive announced their entry into "Cloud Computing" through their product called Azure.
Cloud computing is a relatively new way of using the Internet to accomplish many, if not all, personal and business tasks, using software that is maintained and utilized through the host company's web site and servers. Amazon initially pioneered this effort and is the largest and most advanced in it's utilization and acceptance. Seeing the inherent opportunity in the efficiencies offered in this methodology, many, many others will get into this sphere, and soon.
The rationale is that instead of buying individual software applications on discs that you own and which must have Service Pack updates and upgrades from time to time, the Cloud, accessed from your home or office computer, will offer the applications-probably for a small fee, either monthly, or by usage- and maintain the software and your records and work product that it generates.
In all likelihood, the Cloud will better serve individuals, and Small and Medium businesses. Many large business now, in effect, have their own internal Cloud, maintaining certain software and records on internal servers, rather than on individual desktops, from which individuals access their needs as required.
Large companies may find a cost effectiveness in this approach, which spreads cost over their many users. Perhaps, in the near future the cost equation will dictate a combination of Cloud access for certain applications, and internal server-based usage for others. Economies of scale argue in favor of the continual improvement in efficiency of Cloud-based usage; servers have larger and growing capacity, as do computers and the infrastructure to support them.
The future of the Internet also indicates a need for a Universal Communications device, wireless, transportable, usable Anywhere, at Anytime to connect to Anything, whether work applications, voice, entertainment, whatever. Better yet, when this Universal Communicator is developed, ("Holy Star Trek, Batman!"), is will be "docked" at home, with wireless sensors and routers within your environment and AI software telling the system where you are, and accepting your voice commands to "watch movie," "call Amy," or "send Email to Roger Dodger, " and eventually, "make coffee,", and respond to questions like "what's for dinner?"
The trend is in this direction already, with cell phones, Iphones, PDA's and many variations thereof, replacing home phones at an increasing rate, The major land-line carriers have already lost over 20,000,000 land line users in favor of people using their cell phone exclusively.
Security is, and will be the biggest concern of both large and small users, and individuals, and will be handled through encryption and subsequent decryption at the receiving end of every command, document and transmission of data, even including voice.
How will Cloud computing be implemented?
While Cloud is available now through Amazon, Google and Microsoft,and others, many more are coming. Who might be the additional, credible entrants that we could learn to trust? The largest ISPs are the first logical choice. Comcast, Verizon, AOL, Earthlink, Hughes Direct ( I love Hughe's opportunity, because they are already wireless) are all candidates.
The Business Model that I think will replace local newspapers also sets them up as the Local guys offering all Cloud applications and services, including ISP, because most need and usage is local, local, local. The continuing need to separate Content from the transmission infrastructure is important as well. There is a real need to enhance choice and Content quality by not allowing any one party to own both the means of getting it to you, and the Content that is delivered, Owning both invariably leads to reduced choices and higher costs.
There is some logic in thinking that with the Internet, the cost is virtually the same, whether you are in Mumbai, or the Philippines, or down the street. But, security concerns, infrastructure costs and maintenance, business costs, personnel availability and education, all may point toward local, meaning large city-based systems.
Infrastructure capacity is a real concern. Even with the FIOS buildout of Fiber Optic by Verizon and others, and enhanced Cable capability, we are still facing a capacity problem, when, and if, we reach the point where everyone wants to see a New Release movie -think Disney's "High School Musical Five"-and accommodating 60 million households with High Def Video demand, all at one time on one night. As currently structured, the system would crash.
I can see software which determines the best "path" for different kinds of digital data, choosing between wireless, wired, even powerline transmission to get the Content to the user, as telephone companies now do, and ISPs are starting to do. It's entirely possible that we will develop multiple Internets; think of networks, that may even use different infrastructures than currently used. In all likelihood, those additional 'nets will be structured by user components, like Gov.Net, Mil. Net(military), Edu.net, maybe many others. Initially, they may use existing infrastructure, but eventually usage will demand parallel combinations of wired and wireless structures to accommodate demand.
How Much and Who Pays?
Economists might suggest that a usage-based model works best in creating choices and encouraging capacity. However, as in Cable, Telco, and even AOL, there will be different Business Models which providers can justify; Flat Rate for ease of pricing and appeal to consumers, Tiered Pricing, accommodating consumers, Business, Institutional and Government users, maybe even other models which conform to the needs of both users and providers. Separating Content provision from infrastructure transmission will be key to keeping costs low. Ultimately, if the Internet evolves in the direction of Universal Utility and becomes so necessary and ubiquitous in everyday business and personal life, as the telephone has, usage-based pricing will be best.
The television model developed as advertiser-supported, the Cable model developed initially as delivering a reliable signal, then as Content provider and transmitter, in effect charging for a potion of Content that you could get for free. Their Government-allowed monopoly was designed to guarantee them exclusion in exchange for building the systems, but has allowed hundreds of Billions of dollars of monopoly profits, far and beyond the recovery of their initial investment.
Even today, Cable forces rates up continually through their monopoly control of infrastructure. We are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel in this matter, as competitors come to the market. When Wireless truly develops, as it will, Cable's and Telco's hold on Content transmission will be subject to the competition of a free market. Here's hoping.
Which makes it even more important to separate Content creation and production from the delivery system. Only then will competition drive consumer cost to a reasonable level.
In America we pay more, by a substantial factor, for many products and Services than the same products and services in many other countries. Internet Broadband? As much as three to four times for the same speeds as in Korea, Japan, Canada, UK, some major European countries. Capacity much more in other countries for the same broadband service. Why do we pay more and get less? Monopolies.
Cloud presents a real opportunity to encourage free and competitive access for Content and Service providers, allowing all who meet minimum standards for reliability and security to have access to the various infrastructures that support the Internet.
Ultimately, Cloud Computing is the Utility of tomorrow.
Increased ability to communicate at every level, Anything, Anytime, Anywhere.
A "sea change" in the definition of work and where work is performed (maybe requiring new tools for managers to measure and evaluate "work"), and on what schedule. The transition to a "cloud" economy will of necessity require extensive and long lasting changes in how we think and plan for "commuting" to work; ten feet or ten miles-you choose. Why go to a place far away to write pieces of paper when you can do the same in your "home office?" The insecurity managers and executives feel when they read this will soon translate into realization of the huge increases in productivity and profit that will result.
Why drive to an office when everything you need to accomplish your task is available technologically at your "home office," including the valuable collaborative process known as "face-to-face" time, with conferencing cameras and audio capabilities more and more being built into your Universal Communicators -AKA computers -managers, execs, and peers and subordinates ("associates") can all accomplish what they need with this process, coming soon to a home and business in your area.
A true Cloud economy will develop, where support takes on a whole new meaning. Office buildings by the hundreds of thousands will be recycled into condos and apartments-designed with the new "office" infrastructure included.
Education - Cloud may do substantially away with the need for classroom-based teaching. Students sit at a "home desk" or chair, or whatever, and based on the same conferencing technology, interact with peers and teachers (think process mentors) as necessary, but utilizing the Capacity of the cloud through AI and instructional, programmed learning. No need for far away buildings and transportation of students; cafeterias and hall monitors ( mom and dad are just 20 feet away).
Best of all, students get the highest quality materials of learning, achieve as fast as their curiosity and motivation allow. What we call "genius" today may be relatively common using such a system. It has been demonstrated over and over that students all do better when motivated by the feedback of accomplishment.
Cloud offers the unmatched capability of the resources available through the Internet in Virtual Tours- see what's on display at the Louvre right now, see the famous painting in VR, understand the geography of Roosevelt's Battle of San Juan Hill, see the effects of annual flooding in India and the effects of environmental "landscaping" to accommodate civilization; Anything, Anytime, Anyplace.
Cloud computing offers the economies of scale to provide teaching and learning experiences that are currently unattainable. Teachers get to do what they are supposed to do; teach the process of thinking.
Oh, and kids and parents no longer have to get up at 5:30-6:00 AM to "start the day" unless they want to.
There is a concern about the continually reduced interactivity and development needed through physical and sports education, exercise and related benefits. However, the new cloud society also leads to new, and potentially more interactivity by allowing more time for community-based sports, and physical training and exercise. How easy to plan soccer, Karate , volley ball, tennis and a hundred other things in community-based facilities (think of physical "clouds" of sport and exercise facilities). Utilizing commercial facilities and recycled portions of existing school-based or even new structures designed with those purposes in mind- Community Centers like the 'Y" and others vastly expanded,-and you get a lot of good interaction and outcomes.
How about Health?
Even now, Microsoft and others are sponsoring web sites that offer personal and family health tracking and record keeping; WebMd and others are coming. Combine that with Cloud capability in providing health monitoring and management software programs and home-based testing accessories that wirelessly transmit to your Communications device Health Monitoring program and give you a status, problem report, more or less as needed, daily, even continuous. Think Life Alert with full diagnosis and monitoring/notification capability and the security that offers.
Entertainment?
Cloud makes the choice of Anything, Anytime, Anywhere even more possible. TV shows, movies, sports events, conferences, expositions, conventions, even Virtual Scrabble (absent the smack on the hand). And Cloud allows Entertainment to develop as consumer choice. Taking a break from your Virtual work day and want a movie? Go to it-On Demand, at your convenience.
Flying to Dallas from New York to vacation with relatives on a three hour flight? Cloud allows you to finish your Work project, review your vacation schedule, Virtual Tour the Instructions for your glider piloting adventure, and more.
Cloud offers the potential for much greater personal freedom; more choices of When and Where, Who and How.
As with all such societal advances driven by technology, great risk is presented along with the potential. Personal Privacy and security may, and probably will, be challenged in exchange for the greater freedom and choices offered, and of necessity to protect government and business interests, but this can be done.
The more we invest in a particular structure of a society, the greater the leverage of the inherent risk to our structure and infrastructure of so investing. Concentration of methodology increases the risk of damage either by accident, or through intent of people who want to harm what we have accomplished. Care must be taken to secure the future we design.
Perhaps, as we grow more and more dependent on the Cloud for our personal and business accomplishments, we must manage to mitigate, if not eliminate the greater risk we create.
Government must be the arbiter of credible, if possible, unbreakable standards for the security in the Cloud systems, the processes and infrastructure we create. Not to say that private, free enterprise can't and won't do the job of building and delivering the products and services; they will. But Citizen and consumer security and rights must be the controlling force guiding the process.
The profit motive and the proven ability to develop goods and services, competition and choice are needed, so long as the interests of both citizen users, personal and corporate, and Cloud providers, will be maximized. They need not be mutually exclusive as some would think, but must be mutually profitable and satisfactory, as needs our society.
Cloud shouldn't be"free;" it should be priced to deliver the most choices and satisfaction to the consumer/citizen, while at the same time providing all the incentives necessary to encourage infrastructure and Content development.
Go Cloud!

Barry Dennis410-591-1900