Comment to Steve Rubel Lifestram on Facebook trying the phone marketplace

  Scary. What's next?  Knowing when you run out of Large Condoms?
An order form for Pepsi Home delivery? Giving you the GPS location of your girlfriend? (Actually, that's already a Mobile App).
  I just don't think that you can say that the Facebook "Universe" is all that.
  If there are 180,000,000 Facebook accounts in the U.S. and over 320,000,000 worldwide, when is the "tipping" point when you are everything to everybody? It's one thing to Downstream an advertiser message to an algorithmically selected subscriber, it's another to "wear out your welcome."
  And, what about the market of 126,000,000 (well, take out 60 million 1-12 year olds) who don't have Facebook, or 65,000,000 non-Internet users?
  My point is,  thinking that Facebook could re-invent the appliance marketplace defies the logic. yes, they could make headway. Yes, they could get a market share. But to what end? To own 60% of the Mobile marketplace? Never Happen..Never. Competition wouldn't allow it.
In fact, I'd bet my last dime that if they try, a newer, better, "AKA Facebook" will appear.
  Oh, and is  Google just going to give up trying to "own" a lot of the traffic? Is Convergence and AnyThing, AnyTime, AnyWhere (AAA) going to go away?
  Be the best at what you know, lead in a venue where you are the top brand; you can't be all things to all people, the Brand Dilution diminishes your Brand Value and Loyalty.

Posted via email from dis's posterous

Gold pricing, demand and the Hype

At $1300 per ounce  we're talking $17.47 Billion (that's Billion with a Big "B" folks!). If the writer is suggesting that the entire run-up in gold, or even most of it is due to ETF purchasing, I suggest he look elsewhere.
   At a minimum, Chinese and Indian consumers buy LOTS of gold in lieu of savings-so do their financial intermediaries.
In any case Inflation "believers haven't changed their position at all.
Add to this, the many new casual gold buyers ("sell your old gold?"- and the many new merchants -Captain what's-his-name from Law and Order- now Scott Winters, and others and it seems to me that the Gold hype is still working.
If that is the case, that 420 tons will easily find homes, and then some.

Posted via email from dis's posterous

World energy supplies

  Here's the thing.

  The world has only discovered less than 20% of the Energy that is to be found and developed. Almost every day there are announcements of new discoveries, all around the word.

  Add to this the fact that only 65 countries (out of over 200) have even attempted any discovery research.

   That every time we find out-of-the-way discoveries (Lake Maricaibo) it makes us wonder why more hasn't been discovered, and that geological evidence RIGHT NOW points to attractive prospects that may be more difficult to get to and develop, but hold many times the totals of world energy reserves known as of today.

  Consider that even as populations grow and demand increases through industrialization of developing countries, Alternative Energy may have attained some momentum.

  If so, the numbers point to a "tipping point" between Alternative Energy cost of development and "manufacturing" and a comparative cost for fossil fuels.

  A shortage of fossil-derived sources can only lead to more demand for alternatives.

  We are not so far from that tipping point, and that implies that momentum is shifting in favor of alternatives that will at least act as a brake on the prices of fossil fuels.

  That has great implications for the Forecasts.

Posted via email from dis's posterous

China's Control of Trade

 Investors and Observers simply have to recognize that the "Rules" that China play by...are their rules.

  Google's hacks and Censorship (Google's threats to pull out mean NOTHING), China's State Bank Investment Fund policies (China will shortly become Africa's largest multi-country investor), and more.

  China's exterior investment policies are closely tied to China's Foreign policies.

  "We have given China the bullets for their guns."

  While the U.S. absolutely considers "commerce" an integral part of it's Foreign Policy in the sense of Free Trade, encouraging commerce as a "lever" on other government's policies, we are increasing the leverage of risk over us that other governments hold because of our trade debt obligations and currency values.

  This can only end badly, absent a more forceful push for restraint by the U.S. on others, and we have seen how that works...not at all.

  The Chinese are the best at two-faced negotiations and talks, and when pressed with threats, just respond twice as hard.

  Our current policies are a "no win" situation; we have NO leverage over our supposed "partners" in the Security Council or in Bilateral negotiations-practically none.

  We're helping our geo-political competitors in the (faint) hope of influencing them in the direction we want.

  Since China's (and Russia's, Islamic Confederation States and ...and...) objectives are different than ours, this can't work.

  We would be much better off with a China-like attitude about our external relations, "It's our way or the highway."

Posted via email from dis's posterous

(no subject)

The FCC MUST look towards immediate separation of Content provision from Delivery Infrastructure.
This means the forced separation of Content like ISPs, Entertainment, Pay-Per-View and any and all Content from the "pipeline" now monopolistically controlled by Cable, Telco, and in some areas Wireless. This could include Spin Off's into non-affiliated companies, stock offerings that allow Cable to recoup their investment, but with unaffiliated and independent managements.
This means ensuring Competitive Access at reasonable and Competitive Rates, audited and Regulated as necessary. If the FCC does this without loopholes , the free markets will insure competitive pricing and the U.S. can begin to catch up to the 13-15 other countries-including some Third World countries- that are ahead of the U.S. in Broadband reach and speeds.
If Cable, Telco and Wireless resist, then the FCC should get the Justice Department to seek their breakup. Their monopolies are what have caused the U.S. to lag other countries, lose a competitive Internet edge in commerce (and the U.S. was the Internet inventor!), and now is holding back the development of services such as Cloud Education, Cloud Commuting, and Cloud Health.

Posted via email from dis's posterous

Military Tribunal Real Solution for Enemy Soldiers

Image via Wikipedia

PLANE BOMBER SHOULD GET MILITARY TRIBUNAL

  This and any and all Declared Combatants should be charged and tried in Military tribunals. This is a declared War, on both sides; they-Al Qaeda- declared first. 
  That this war is found, and fought, on non-battlefield domains makes it no less a war.
  Why can’t this government and some politicians and the Attorney General accept this?
Is it politics? An attempt to justify weakness and lack of resolve with misguided and erroneously drawn devotion to “Democratic” principles?   
  Isn’t it enough that in addition to this  Soldier’s declared membership in Al Qaeda, he acknowledged proudly his Al Qaeda-sponsored terrorist training in Yemen, as have others?
  His chosen Field of Combat was an airplane; as others have so chosen.

  We are irrational if we expect to be able to choose the time and place of combat, other than when conducting military operations against soldiers and facilities we have discovered through intelligence.
  Is this any different than when we discovered and bombed Iraqi airfields and military facilities? German Ammunition dumps in WWII? Vietnamese underground tunnels, soldier’s barracks, supply lines and training facilities?
  We should manifest charges and hold a trial in a properly chartered Military Tribunal, and establish an appropriate POW facility. (Wait! I have an idea! Guantanamo! A legitimately chartered and managed POW camp, with Military Courts already in place).
Let me also point out then even though Guantanamo is a proper venue, we have already released Combatant Soldiers who have returned to their “battlefields ” of choice and have attacked the U.S. again.
  We guarantee our lack of effective and a sustained strategy when we let our enemies dictate the choice of battlefields, and then thank them for their strategy by failing to make our appropriate and justified response a surety; a policy that enemy combatants will be handled as prisoners of war, tried when necessary for war crimes, and jailed or executed as appropriate.
If this “war’ lasts for 20 years, so will their jail sentence. After all, war prisoners in previous wars weren’t repatriated until the way was over.
  Perhaps that will give some pause to their Sponsors and to their willing participation.
  Although, now that I have said that, what makes me think that an unsuccessful suicide bomber would be somehow apprehensive about a life sentence if caught? After all, he was willing to pay  a much higher price; his actual life.
 Try enemy combatants wherever and whenever caught; if convicted, “suggest” that their country of capture, or their home country jail them until the war is over,or bury them if that is a result of their trial and sentence.
  I am convinced that when Osama bin Laden and his AL Qaeda and terrorist brethren go to bed at night they say, “What were they thinking? If I get caught, what a great way to avoid real consequences.”

via newsflavor.com

Posted via web from dis's posterous

Military Tribunal Real Solution for Enemy Soldiers

Military Tribunal Real Solution for Enemy Soldiers